Science Panel Outlines Roadmap for Reducing
Risks from Climate Change
NEW YORK, NY (February 27,
2007) – The United Nations Foundation (UN
Foundation) and Sigma Xi, the Scientific Research
Society, released today “Confronting Climate
Change: Avoiding the Unmanageable and Managing
the Unavoidable, ” the final report of the
Scientific Expert Group on Climate Change and
Sustainable Development. The report, prepared
as input for the upcoming meeting of the UN’s
Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD), outlines
a roadmap for preventing unmanageable climate
changes and adapting to the degree of change that
can no longer be avoided.
Two years in the making, the report was written
by a panel of eminent scientists from around the
world. The panel was co-chaired by Dr. Peter Raven,
Director of the Missouri Botanical Garden, and
Dr. Rosina Bierbaum, Dean of the University of
Michigan’s School of Natural Resources and
the Environment. The expert team was invited by
the UN’s Department of Economic and Social
Affairs, Secretariat to the CSD, to make recommendations
on key mitigation and adaptation needs. This year’s
15th Session of the CSD is reviewing national
and international efforts on energy and climate
change.
“Two starkly different futures diverge from
this time forward,” the report cautions.
“Society’s current path leads to increasingly
serious climate-change impacts… The other
path … will reduce dangerous emissions,
create economic opportunity, help to reduce global
poverty, reduce degradation and carbon emissions
from ecosystems, and contribute to sustainability.
Humanity must act collectively and urgently to
change course through leadership at all levels
of society. There is no more time for delay.”
“This report defines the seriousness and
urgency that must characterize global efforts
to respond to the unfolding and far-reaching challenge
of climate change. Confronting Climate Change
makes clear that we must start immediately to
stabilize and then substantially reverse the trajectory
of greenhouse gas emissions,” said Timothy
E. Wirth, President of the United Nations Foundation.
“The international community should be grateful
that this remarkable panel of scientific all-stars
from around the world has provided a roadmap for
mitigating and adapting to climate change. And
they have told us that there is tremendous economic
opportunity in doing so.”
“Our report makes clear that the challenge
before us is to reduce the risk of climate change
resulting in intolerable global impacts,”
said Peter H. Raven, Past President of Sigma Xi,
Presidential Medal of Science recipient and preeminent
biodiversity expert. “Our recommendations
are designed to help the international community
get on a path to stabilizing atmospheric concentrations
of greenhouse gases and managing the impacts of
climate change. Unlike many reports from scientists,
this report gives very clear recommendations for
what the international community and nations themselves
must do to mitigate and adapt to climate change.
These steps will contribute to achievement of
the UN’s Millennium Development Goals; failing
to do so will make those goals much harder, if
not impossible to reach.”
“It is still possible to avoid an unmanageable
degree of climate change, but the time for action
is now,” said John Holdren, the Teresa and
John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy,
Harvard University, Director of the Woods Hole
Research Center, and Chairman of the Board of
the American Association for the Advancement of
Science. “The global-average surface temperature
has already risen about 0.8°C above pre-industrial
levels and is projected to rise another 2-4°C
by 2100 if CO2 emissions and concentrations grow
according to mid-range projections. Prudence dictates
limiting the average temperature increase to no
more than 2-2.5°C above the pre-industrial
level, and our report offers clear recommendations
for achieving that goal.”
“The world is experiencing climate disruption
now and the increases in droughts, floods, and
sea level rise that will occur in the coming decades
will cause enormous human suffering and economic
losses. The poorest are likely the most vulnerable.
We imperil our children’s and grandchildren’s
future if we fail to improve society’s capacity
to adapt to a changing climate,” said Rosina
Bierbaum, former Acting Director of the White
House Office of Science and Technology Policy.
“We can manage water better, bolster disaster
preparedness, increase surveillance for emerging
diseases, make cities more resilient, move vulnerable
populations and prepare for environmental refugees,
design more drought-tolerant crops, use natural
resources more sustainably, and enhance local
capacity to cope with a suite of expected changes.”
The report covers an overview of the science of
climate change; the importance of avoiding the
risk of major impacts of climate change; options
for mitigation; and steps that can be taken to
prepare to adapt to anticipated climate change.
Among the report’s key findings are:
• Exceeding global average temperature increases
above 2-2.5°C above the 1750 pre-industrial
level would entail “sharply increasing risk
of intolerable impacts.”
To avoid exceeding the 2-2.5° C limit will
require stabilizing atmospheric concentrations
at the equivalent of no more than 450-500 ppm
of CO2 (compared to about 380 ppm CO2-equivalent
today). That in turn requires that global CO2
emissions peak no later than 2015 to 2020 at not
much above their current level and decline by
2100 to about a third of that value.
A two-pronged strategy is needed: avoid the unmanageable
(mitigation) and manage the unavoidable (adaptation).
• The technology exists to seize significant
opportunities around the globe to reduce emissions
and provide other economic, environmental and
social benefits, including meeting the United
Nations’ Millennium Development Goals. To
do so, policy makers must immediately act by:
• Improving efficiency
in the transportation sector through measures
such as vehicle efficiency standards, fuel taxes,
and registration fees/rebates that favor purchase
of efficient and alternative fuel vehicles.
• Improving design and efficiency of commercial
and residential buildings through building codes,
standards for equipment and appliances, incentives
for property developers and landlords to build
and manage properties efficiently, and financing
for energy-efficiency investments.
• Expanding the use of biofuels through
energy portfolio standards and incentives to
growers and consumers.
• Beginning immediately, designing and
deploying only coal power-plant types that can
be affordably retrofitted to capture and sequester
CO2.
• Climate change
and impacts from it are already being experienced,
and there will be more even if mitigation efforts
are successful. Societies must do more to adapt
to ongoing and unavoidable changes in the Earth’s
climate system by:
• Improving preparedness/response
strategies and management of natural resources
to cope with future climatic conditions that
will be fundamentally different than those experienced
for the last 100 years.
• Addressing the adaptation needs of the
poorest and most vulnerable nations, which will
bear the brunt of climate change impacts.
• Planning and building climate resilient
cities.
• Strengthening international, national,
and regional institutions to cope with weather-related
disasters and an increasing number of climate
change refugees.
• The international
community, through the UN and related multilateral
institutions, can play a crucial role in advancing
action to manage the unavoidable and avoid the
unmanageable by:
• Helping developing
countries and countries with economies in transition
to finance and deploy energy efficient and new
energy technologies.
• Accelerating negotiations to develop
a new international framework for addressing
climate change and sustainable development.
• Educating all about the opportunities
to adopt mitigation and adaptation measures.
The coordinating lead authors
of the report were Rosina Bierbaum, Professor
and Dean, School of Natural Resources and Environment,
University of Michigan, United States; John P.
Holdren, Director, The Woods Hole Research Center,
and Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental
Policy, Harvard University, United States; Michael
MacCracken, Chief Scientist for Climate Change
Programs, Climate Institute, United States; Richard
H. Moss, Senior Director, Climate and Energy,
United Nations Foundation and University of Maryland,
United States; and Peter H. Raven, President,
Missouri Botanical Garden, United States. Other
lead authors on the report were: Ulisses Confalonieri,
Professor, National School of Public Health and
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;
Jacques “Jack” Dubois, Member of the
Executive Board, Swiss Re, United States; Alexander
Ginzburg, Deputy Director, Institute of Atmospheric
Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russian
Federation; Peter H. Gleick, President, Pacific
Institute for Studies in Development, Environment,
and Security, United States; Zara Khatib, Technology
Marketing Manager, Shell International, United
Arab Emirates; Janice Lough, Principal Research
Scientist, Australian Institute of Marine Science,
Australia; Ajay Mathur, President, Senergy Global
Private Limited, India; Mario Molina, Professor,
University of California, San Diego, United States,
and President, Mario Molina Center, Mexico; Keto
Mshigeni, Vice Chancellor, The Hubert Kairuki
Memorial University, Tanzania; Nebojsa “Naki”
Nakicenovic, Professor, Vienna University of Technology,
and Program Leader, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis, Austria; Taikan Oki,
Professor, Institute of Industrial Science, The
University of Tokyo, Japan; Hans Joachim “John”
Schellnhuber, Professor and Director, Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany;
and Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Professor, Central
European University, Hungary.
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About Sigma Xi
Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society is an
international honor society for research scientists
and engineers, with more than 500 chapters and
60,000 members in North America and around the
world. The society sponsors a number of programs
that promote science and engineering and also
publishes American Scientist magazine. Sigma Xi’s
administrative offices are in Research Triangle
Park, N.C. www.sigmaxi.org
About the UN Foundation
The UN Foundation was created in 1998 with entrepreneur
and philanthropist Ted Turner’s historic
$1 billion gift to support UN causes and activities.
The UN Foundation builds and implements public-private
partnerships to address the world’s most
pressing problems and also works to broaden support
for the UN through advocacy and public outreach.
The UN Foundation is a public charity. www.unfoundation.org
Press Contacts:
Katherine
Miller Communications Director
United Nations Foundation
202.778.1622 kmiller@unfoundation.org
